In an era where the cosmos is increasingly populated by competing satellite constellations, the potential for space collisions has risen dramatically. This growing concern was underscored in 2021 when a Starlink satellite and a OneWeb spacecraft narrowly avoided a collision. The automated systems of both companies did detect the close approach; however, the incident highlighted significant issues regarding communication and coordination between space-faring entities that rely heavily on autonomous systems.
The event illuminated the fundamental incompatibilities between the human-centric, state-based frameworks of the existing international space law and the mechanisms of modern autonomous space operations. Such operations are not only complex but are increasingly guided by artificial intelligence, which operates independent of human input, leading to the potential for “harmful interference” in outer space—a term coined to describe activities by one space entity that adversely affect another.
To navigate these challenges, experts argue that the United States should spearhead efforts to update the space law to foster instantaneous, machine-driven consultations required to avoid collisions. This update would also necessitate redefining what constitutes harmful interference in space to encompass the potential cascading damage that could result from such incidents.
Further underlining the urgency are the developments in satellite technology and management. The European Space Agency, for example, employs advanced machine learning algorithms to predict and mitigate collision risks automatically. Likewise, DARPA’s ambitious Blackjack program aims to develop a constellation of satellites capable of autonomous coordination without human direction from the ground.
These advancements find echoes in seemingly unrelated initiatives globally. For instance, in November 2024, Oman launched its first AI-integrated satellite, primarily used for remote sensing and real-time data processing. Similarly, SpaceX, within just six months of the same year, conducted tens of thousands of autonomous maneuvers to avoid collisions, showcasing the pressing need for updated legal instruments that can manage such high-frequency autonomous activities.
Current treaties, like the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, are vastly outdated in this context. They require “appropriate international consultations” before any action that might interfere with the space operations of other parties—an impractical expectation when decisions need to be executed within fractions of a second by automated systems. Notably, recent incidents such as the emergency maneuvers by China’s space station Tiangong to avoid collisions with SpaceX’s Starlink satellites underscore the deficiencies of the current regulatory frameworks and raise questions about deliberate interference and space sovereignty.
Given these developments, the United States is positioned to redefine the parameters of space law by incorporating clear guidelines for the functioning and liability of autonomous systems in space. This would entail establishing a new definition of harmful interference that considers the complex dynamics of autonomous satellite constellations and creating a framework for attributing responsibility when automated systems make independent decisions.
The implications for managing the space traffic are profound. The U.S. Air Force Academy, for instance, uses these scenarios as teaching moments for cadets who will manage these satellite constellations in the future. Training the next generation of space professionals in an environment that aligns with current technological realities is crucial.
In conclusion, revising international space law to adequately address the use of autonomous and AI-enabled systems is critical. The U.S. could lead this transformation by revising its national space policies and advocating for amendments to international treaties through platforms like the United Nations. The alternative—sticking to outdated laws—risks making space an increasingly ungoverned and hazardous domain, threatening both the incredible commercial potential and the strategic stability of outer space.
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