QUITO, Ecuador — Ecuadorians will head to the polling stations this Sunday to choose once again between a wealthy conservative incumbent and a leftist lawyer, marking the country’s second presidential runoff in less than two years. This election underscores the deeply entrenched political divisions as the nation grapples with persistent violent crimes that have surged in the post-pandemic period.
President Daniel Noboa, a 37-year-old millionaire with a business empire inherited from his involvement in the banana trade, competes against Luisa González, 47, a lawyer with significant governmental experience. Both candidates have channeled their campaigns primarily on promises to tackle Ecuador’s escalating security issues, employing a hardline stance on crime, including extensive support for law enforcement and broader international cooperation to combat organized criminal groups.
The urgency of addressing security concerns stems from a dramatic rise in crime rates since 2021, closely linked to cocaine trafficking from the neighboring countries of Colombia and Peru. The ensuing violence has left the public anxious and expectant of effective governance solutions.
In the heated election context, the contenders emerged as the primary choices in a runoff following a closely contested initial round in February. Noboa secured 44.17% of the votes, closely followed by González with 44%. As the two prepare for the imminent showdown, analysts anticipate a narrow margin in the result, reflecting the deeply polarized political landscape.
Adding a layer of intrigue to the electoral race, more than 13 million Ecuadorians are obliged to cast their vote, enforced by a mandatory voting law applicable to adults up to the age of 65, with non-compliance attracting a fine of $46. Optional voting is extended to those aged 16 and 17 and seniors over 65.
Both Noboa and González were relatively unknown figures in the political realm before their rise in 2023. Their political careers gained momentum following a snap election triggered by the former President Guillermo Lasso, who dissolved the National Assembly, thereby abbreviating his tenure.
Before entering politics, Noboa ventured into the corporate world, founding an event organizing company at the age of 18 before taking up significant roles in his father’s corporation. González, on the other hand, gained her political acumen under the administration of Rafael Correa, Ecuador’s president from 2007 to 2017. Her tenure under Correa’s increasingly authoritarian regime likely provided her with a comprehensive grasp of state operations and intricacies.
In January 2024, faced with escalating urban violence, President Noboa declared an “internal armed conflict,” sanctioning the deployment of thousands of troops to quell gang violence. Despite a marked decrease in homicide rates under his administration—from 46.18 per 100,000 in 2023 to 38.76 per 100,000 in 2024—critics argue that these numbers still indicate a severe public safety crisis compared to the rate of 6.85 per 100,000 in 2019.
Noboa’s administration has not been without controversy, particularly concerning his robust anti-crime tactics which have stretched the boundaries of constitutional powers and civil liberties. Moreover, his allegations of electoral irregularities post the February elections, which lacked substantial evidence, drew criticism amidst assessments by international observers who dismissed potential fraud.
As election day draws near, polling stations are set to open at 7 a.m. local time, with voting concluding at 5 p.m. Initial election results are anticipated shortly after polls close, setting the stage for what could be a transformative leadership decision in facing Ecuador’s pressing challenges.
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